SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 50.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 21.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.64%) and 1-2 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Barracas Central win it was 1-0 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barracas Central | Draw | Boca Juniors |
21.98% ( 0.29) | 27.44% ( 0.08) | 50.58% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 42.05% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.12% ( -0.02) | 61.88% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.35% ( -0.02) | 81.64% ( 0.02) |
| Barracas Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.87% ( 0.29) | 44.13% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.77% ( 0.24) | 80.23% ( -0.24) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.26% ( -0.18) | 24.74% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.7% ( -0.26) | 59.3% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barracas Central | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 8.93% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.94% Total : 21.98% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.91% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.49% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 15.24% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 10.64% ( -0.11)1-2 @ 8.71% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.06% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.15% Total : 50.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | BelgranoBelgrano | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27 |
| 5 | Rosario CentralRosario | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | LanusLanus | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 |
| 7 | TalleresTalleres | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 24 |
| 8 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 24 |
| 9 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
| 10 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 20 |
| 11 | TigreTigre | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 20 |
| 12 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
| 14 | Racing ClubRacing | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 | ColonColon | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
| 17 | Barracas Central | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 17 |
| 18 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 17 |
| 19 | Instituto | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 17 |
| 20 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 21 | Sarmiento | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| 22 | HuracanHuracan | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
| 23 | BanfieldBanfield | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 15 |
| 24 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
| 25 | IndependienteIndependiente | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 26 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 14 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
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