Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 48.01%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Sochi win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
