SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Getafe | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 19 | Real Valladolid | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Mallorca | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Almeria | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 1-0 (11.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cadiz | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
31.12% ( 1.28) | 29% ( -0.63) | 39.88% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 44.2% ( 2.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.66% ( 2.32) | 62.33% ( -2.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.01% ( 1.66) | 81.98% ( -1.66) |
| Cadiz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.64% ( 2.27) | 36.36% ( -2.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.85% ( 2.22) | 73.14% ( -2.22) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.45% ( 0.79) | 30.54% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.22% ( 0.93) | 66.77% ( -0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cadiz | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 11.23% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.39)2-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.18)Other @ 1.92% Total : 31.11% | 1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 11.1% ( -1)2-2 @ 4% ( 0.31)Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.99% | 0-1 @ 13.17% ( -0.87) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 7.81% ( -0.34)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 1.36% Total : 39.87% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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