SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 38 | -14 | 47 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 0 | 46 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.72%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Osasuna |
53.72% ( -0.02) | 24.99% ( -0.01) | 21.29% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.64% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.91% ( 0.07) | 54.1% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.48% ( 0.06) | 75.52% ( -0.06) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.89% ( 0.02) | 20.11% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.63% ( 0.03) | 52.37% ( -0.03) |
| Osasuna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.64% ( 0.07) | 40.36% ( -0.07) |
