Middlesbrough will see no reason why they cannot add Chelsea to their list of FA Cup scalps, but a fatigued Blues side still possess the necessary defensive nous to shut out an inexperienced Boro attack.
Tuchel's side have been far from spectacular against lower-league opposition in this season's tournament, but a refreshed set of options up front will feel confident of breaking the Boro resilience as the hosts' FA Cup journey ends in front of their own fans.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 55.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Middlesbrough win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Chelsea in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Chelsea.
