SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Santos | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 12 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Corinthians | 13 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Mineiro | 13 | 5 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.59%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (11.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Palmeiras |
37.06% ( -0.03) | 29.08% ( 0.09) | 33.85% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 44.55% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.82% ( -0.31) | 62.18% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.13% ( -0.23) | 81.87% ( 0.23) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.81% ( -0.18) | 32.19% ( 0.18) |
