SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Fluminense | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Coritiba | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | America Mineiro | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 12 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Athletico Paranaense | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Avai | 12 | -2 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 24.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Coritiba | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
48.32% ( -0.05) | 27.23% ( 0.04) | 24.45% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 44.98% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.62% ( -0.14) | 59.38% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.23% ( -0.11) | 79.77% ( 0.11) |
| Coritiba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( -0.09) | 24.69% ( 0.09) |
