SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Atletico Mineiro | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 5 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 4 | 15 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 17.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Caracas |
58.46% ( -0.03) | 23.76% ( -0.18) | 17.78% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.76% ( 0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.26% ( 0.96) | 53.74% ( -0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.78% ( 0.81) | 75.22% ( -0.81) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.84% ( 0.35) | 18.16% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.86% ( 0.59) | 49.14% ( -0.59) |
| Caracas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.91% ( 0.83) | 44.08% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.81% ( 0.67) | 80.19% ( -0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Caracas |
| 1-0 @ 13.65% ( -0.37) 2-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.18)2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.29% Total : 58.44% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.01% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.76% | 0-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.63% Total : 17.78% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 26 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 63 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 58 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 49 |
| 4 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 45 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 47 | 28 | 19 | 42 |
| 6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 24 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 35 | 17 | 18 | 41 |
| 7 | Fulham | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 38 |
| 9 | Brentford | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 38 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 34 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 27 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 27 |
| 14 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 26 |
| 15 | Leicester CityLeicester | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 24 |
| 16 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 23 |
| 17 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 22 |
| 18 | Everton | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 22 |
| 19 | Southampton | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 21 |
| 20 | Bournemouth | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 21 |
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