There is little to choose between the sides, and the game could easily swing either way. However, Sarmiento have been solid on their own patch of late, and coupled with their impressive record in this fixture, we are tipping them to scrape a narrow win in the end.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
0.25) 
-0.03) 
