Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing Club win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 17.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing Club win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.22%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Racing Club would win this match.
