SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
41.2% ( 0.04) | 26.72% ( 0.01) | 32.08% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.08% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.16% ( -0.05) | 53.84% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.7% ( -0.04) | 75.3% ( 0.04) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.25% ( -0) | 25.75% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.32% ( -0) | 60.68% ( 0.01) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.79% ( -0.06) | 31.21% ( 0.06) |
