SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
41.21% ( -0.81) | 25.2% ( 0.07) | 33.59% ( 0.74) |
| Both teams to score 56.52% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.96% ( -0.14) | 47.04% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.72% ( -0.13) | 69.28% ( 0.13) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.28% ( -0.46) | 22.71% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.62% ( -0.68) | 56.38% ( 0.68) |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.12% ( 0.39) | 26.87% ( -0.39) |
