Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 29.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
