SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 52.12%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 25.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
52.12% ( -0.11) | 22.39% ( 0.17) | 25.49% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 61.05% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.24% ( -0.85) | 38.76% ( 0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.93% ( -0.9) | 61.07% ( 0.9) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.99% ( -0.33) | 15.01% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 56.52% ( -0.64) | 43.48% ( 0.64) |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.83% ( -0.49) | 28.17% ( 0.5) |
