SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 60.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Tahiti had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Tahiti win it was 0-1 (5.22%).
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | Tahiti |
60.31% ( 1.28) | 21.54% ( -0.42) | 18.15% ( -0.86) |
| Both teams to score 53.22% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.87% ( 0.51) | 44.13% ( -0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.49% ( 0.49) | 66.51% ( -0.49) |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.8% ( 0.57) | 14.2% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.09% ( 1.1) | 41.91% ( -1.11) |
| Tahiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.02% ( -0.66) | 37.97% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.25% ( -0.64) | 74.74% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Caledonia | Draw | Tahiti |
| 1-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.19)2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.1)5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.82% Total : 60.3% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.54% | 0-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.33% Total : 18.15% |
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