SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tahiti win with a probability of 66.71%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Samoa had a probability of 15.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tahiti win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.41%) and 1-3 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.67%), while for a Samoa win it was 2-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tahiti would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Samoa | Draw | Tahiti |
15.6% ( 0.24) | 17.69% ( -0.11) | 66.71% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 61.7% ( 1.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.44% ( 1.1) | 30.55% ( -1.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.14% ( 1.31) | 51.85% ( -1.3) |
| Samoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.45% ( 1.01) | 32.54% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.92% ( 1.12) | 69.08% ( -1.11) |
| Tahiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.47% ( 0.27) | 8.53% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.47% ( 0.65) | 29.52% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Samoa | Draw | Tahiti |
| 2-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 3.12% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.84% Total : 15.6% | 1-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.31% Total : 17.69% | 1-2 @ 9.44% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.31)1-3 @ 7.75% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 6.9% ( -0.17)0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.34)1-4 @ 4.77% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 4.35% ( 0.13)0-4 @ 4.25% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 2.68% ( 0.12)1-5 @ 2.35% ( 0.07)0-5 @ 2.09% ( 0)2-5 @ 1.32% ( 0.07)3-4 @ 1% ( 0.07)1-6 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.61% Total : 66.71% |
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