SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 52.41%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 24.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 2-1 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%).
| Result | ||
| Vanuatu | Draw | Samoa |
24.7% ( 0.08) | 22.89% ( -0.1) | 52.41% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 58.43% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.17% ( 0.55) | 41.83% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.77% ( 0.55) | 64.23% ( -0.54) |
| Vanuatu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.57% ( 0.36) | 30.43% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.37% ( 0.43) | 66.63% ( -0.42) |
| Samoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% ( 0.2) | 16.01% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.66% ( 0.37) | 45.34% ( -0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vanuatu | Draw | Samoa |
| 2-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 24.7% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.88% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 5.94% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 2.29% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.5% Total : 52.41% |
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