New Zealand have so far demonstrated that they are a level above the rest of their competitors in Oceania qualifying, and we think that they will continue to dominate on Sunday when they come up against a Tahiti side who will feel under-prepared following a chaotic group stage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 52.7%. A win for Tahiti had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Tahiti win was 1-2 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
