SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tahiti win with a probability of 71.45%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Vanuatu had a probability of 13.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tahiti win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.14%), while for a Vanuatu win it was 1-2 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tahiti would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tahiti | Draw | Vanuatu |
71.45% ( 0.19) | 15.34% ( -0.24) | 13.2% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 64.82% ( 1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.9% ( 1.41) | 24.09% ( -1.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.27% ( 1.85) | 43.72% ( -1.86) |
| Tahiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.98% ( 0.36) | 6.02% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.06% ( 1.01) | 22.93% ( -1.01) |
| Vanuatu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.97% ( 1.1) | 31.02% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.66% ( 1.27) | 67.33% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tahiti | Draw | Vanuatu |
| 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 8.08% 2-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.39)3-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.12)1-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.4)4-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.17)5-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.13)6-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.09)4-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1)6-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.76% Total : 71.45% | 1-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.18)3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.43% Total : 15.34% | 1-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.78% Total : 13.21% |
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