SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 26.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 2-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | New Zealand |
| 26.61% | 22.28% | 51.11% |
| Both teams to score 62.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.76% | 37.24% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.55% | 59.45% |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.45% | 26.55% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.24% | 61.76% |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.19% | 14.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.9% | 43.09% |
| Score Analysis |
| New Caledonia | Draw | New Zealand |
| 2-1 @ 6.6% 1-0 @ 5.21% 2-0 @ 3.46% 3-1 @ 2.92% 3-2 @ 2.79% 3-0 @ 1.53% 4-1 @ 0.97% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.2% Total : 26.61% | 1-1 @ 9.96% 2-2 @ 6.31% 0-0 @ 3.93% 3-3 @ 1.78% Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.28% | 1-2 @ 9.51% 0-1 @ 7.51% 0-2 @ 7.17% 1-3 @ 6.06% 0-3 @ 4.57% 2-3 @ 4.02% 1-4 @ 2.89% 0-4 @ 2.18% 2-4 @ 1.92% 1-5 @ 1.1% Other @ 4.19% Total : 51.11% |
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