SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 58.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Como had a probability of 19.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Como win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Modena would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Modena | Draw | Como |
58.08% ( 0.02) | 22.38% ( -0) | 19.54% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.95% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.29% ( -0) | 45.71% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.97% ( -0) | 68.03% ( 0.01) |
| Modena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.56% ( 0.01) | 15.44% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.71% ( 0.01) | 44.28% ( -0) |
| Como Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.62% ( -0.02) | 37.38% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.84% ( -0.02) | 74.16% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Modena | Draw | Como |
| 1-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.91% 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.17% 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.93% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.42% 5-0 @ 1.1% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.44% Total : 58.08% | 1-1 @ 10.61% 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0)3-3 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.38% | 0-1 @ 5.68% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.22% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.79% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.62% Total : 19.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 18 | 30 | 61 |
| 2 | BariBari | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Genoa | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 47 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 47 |
| 5 | Pisa | 28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 42 |
| 6 | RegginaReggina | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | Parma | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 40 |
| 8 | CagliariCagliari | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 39 |
| 9 | Palermo | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 38 |
| 10 | AscoliAscoli | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 36 |
| 11 | Ternana | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Modena | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 35 |
| 13 | Como | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 35 |
| 14 | Cittadella | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Perugia | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 30 |
| 16 | VeneziaVenezia | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 29 |
| 17 | SPALSPAL | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
| 18 | BeneventoBenevento | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 28 |
| 19 | Brescia | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 27 |
| 20 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 26 |
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