SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 32.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Como in this match.
| Result | ||
| Como | Draw | Perugia |
39.04% ( 0.66) | 28.19% ( -0.63) | 32.77% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.87% ( 1.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.76% ( 2.19) | 59.24% ( -2.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.35% ( 1.66) | 79.65% ( -1.66) |
| Como Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.49% ( 1.48) | 29.51% ( -1.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.48% ( 1.77) | 65.52% ( -1.77) |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.49% ( 1.14) | 33.51% ( -1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.85% ( 1.22) | 70.15% ( -1.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Como | Draw | Perugia |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.51) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 7.37% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 3% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.57% Total : 39.03% | 1-1 @ 13.19% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.84)2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.26)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.19% | 0-1 @ 10.81% ( -0.56) 1-2 @ 7.21% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.45% Total : 32.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 58 |
| 2 | Genoa | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | BariBari | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 44 |
| 5 | RegginaReggina | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Pisa | 27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 41 |
| 7 | CagliariCagliari | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Parma | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 37 |
| 9 | Palermo | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 37 |
| 10 | AscoliAscoli | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 36 |
| 11 | Modena | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 35 |
| 12 | Ternana | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 35 |
| 13 | Cittadella | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 | Como | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Perugia | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 30 |
| 16 | VeneziaVenezia | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 29 |
| 17 | BeneventoBenevento | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 27 |
| 18 | Brescia | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 26 |
| 19 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 26 |
| 20 | SPALSPAL | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 25 |
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