SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Khimki | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | FC Krasnodar | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 2 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 67.84%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 13.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
67.84% ( 0.23) | 18.67% ( 0.06) | 13.49% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 51.99% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.72% ( -0.98) | 40.28% ( 0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.35% ( -1.01) | 62.65% ( 1.01) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.1% ( -0.21) | 10.9% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.95% ( -0.47) | 35.05% ( 0.48) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.35% ( -1.05) | 41.65% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.87% ( -0.93) | 78.13% ( 0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spartak Moscow | Draw | Orenburg |
| 2-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.31) 1-0 @ 10.06% ( 0.36)2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 2.02% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.09)Other @ 4.13% Total : 67.84% | 1-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.2)2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.12% Total : 18.67% | 0-1 @ 3.98% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | RostovRostov | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sochi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Baltika | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | OrenburgOrenburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Fakel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Dynamo Moscow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Nizhny Novgorod | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
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