SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rostov | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
41.93% ( -0.31) | 25.7% ( -0.05) | 32.36% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 54.43% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.43% ( 0.34) | 49.56% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.41% ( 0.3) | 71.59% ( -0.31) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( -0) | 23.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.52% ( -0) | 57.48% ( 0) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.12% ( 0.4) | 28.88% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.25% ( 0.5) | 64.75% ( -0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rostov | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 1-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.12% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 41.93% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.23% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.59% Total : 32.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 72 | 19 | 53 | 66 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 57 | 44 | 13 | 43 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 40 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 39 |
| 10 | Sochi | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | Fakel | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 23 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 62 | -37 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 28 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 13 |
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