SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.33%) and 2-0 (5.33%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 40.28% | 23.08% ( -0.04) | 36.64% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 64.93% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.66% ( 0.24) | 36.34% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.53% ( 0.26) | 58.47% ( -0.25) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.42% ( 0.1) | 18.58% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.15% ( 0.17) | 49.85% ( -0.16) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.75% ( 0.13) | 20.25% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.41% ( 0.21) | 52.59% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.81% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 3.66% Total : 40.28% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 8.08% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.11% Total : 36.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 25 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | RostovRostov | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | OrenburgOrenburg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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