SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Krylia Sovetov had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Krylia Sovetov |
46.57% ( 0.2) | 24.96% ( -0.07) | 28.47% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 54.85% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.9% ( 0.2) | 48.1% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.73% ( 0.18) | 70.26% ( -0.19) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.3% ( 0.17) | 20.69% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.7% ( 0.27) | 53.29% ( -0.27) |
| Krylia Sovetov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.16% ( 0) | 30.83% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.89% ( 0) | 67.11% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Krylia Sovetov |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 46.57% | 1-1 @ 11.82% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.95% | 0-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.98% Total : 28.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | OrenburgOrenburg | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | RostovRostov | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Baltika | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Sochi | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
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