Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.06) 
