SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
38.24% ( 0.07) | 25.24% ( -0.01) | 36.52% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.87% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.21% ( 0.03) | 46.8% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.95% ( 0.03) | 69.06% ( -0.03) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.88% ( 0.05) | 24.12% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.58% ( 0.08) | 58.42% ( -0.07) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.95% ( -0.02) | 25.05% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.27% ( -0.03) | 59.73% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.01% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 38.24% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 8.37% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.7% 0-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.94% 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.79% Total : 36.52% |
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