SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
36.3% ( -0.02) | 27.07% ( 0.06) | 36.63% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.69% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.34% ( -0.22) | 54.66% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.01% ( -0.18) | 75.99% ( 0.19) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.09% ( -0.12) | 28.91% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.22% ( -0.15) | 64.78% ( 0.15) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -0.12) | 28.7% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.47% ( -0.16) | 64.53% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 10.29% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.98% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.64% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.6% Total : 36.29% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.07% | 0-1 @ 10.35% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.02% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 36.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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