SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Moreirense |
35.11% ( -0.18) | 27.73% ( 0.05) | 37.17% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 48.6% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.75% ( -0.21) | 57.24% ( 0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.91% ( -0.17) | 78.09% ( 0.17) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( -0.22) | 30.93% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.78% ( -0.26) | 67.22% ( 0.26) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( -0.02) | 29.64% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.32% ( -0.03) | 65.68% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.06% Total : 35.1% | 1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.72% | 0-1 @ 11.14% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.95% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 37.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Benfica | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Porto | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Braga | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 16 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Vizela | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 |
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