SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Arouca |
33.85% ( 0.04) | 26.95% ( 0) | 39.19% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.81% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.61% ( -0.01) | 54.39% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.23% ( -0.01) | 75.77% ( 0.01) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.69% ( 0.02) | 30.31% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.51% ( 0.03) | 66.49% ( -0.03) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.9% ( -0.03) | 27.09% ( 0.03) |
