SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Gil Vicente |
36.76% ( -0.03) | 25.37% ( 0) | 37.86% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 56.43% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.63% ( -0.02) | 47.37% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.41% ( -0.02) | 69.58% ( 0.01) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.82% ( -0.03) | 25.18% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.09% ( -0.04) | 59.9% ( 0.03) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.42% ( 0.01) | 24.58% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.93% ( 0.01) | 59.07% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.89% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.8% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.71% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.76% | 1-1 @ 11.97% 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.85% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.71% 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0)0-4 @ 1% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.86% Total : 37.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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