SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 65.57%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 15.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 1-0 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.68%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Estoril Praia |
65.57% ( -1.16) | 18.88% ( 0.3) | 15.55% ( 0.86) |
| Both teams to score 56.84% ( 1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.36% ( 0.41) | 36.64% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.2% ( 0.44) | 58.8% ( -0.44) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.55% ( -0.17) | 10.45% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.94% ( -0.4) | 34.06% ( 0.4) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.48% ( 1.37) | 36.52% ( -1.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.69% ( 1.36) | 73.31% ( -1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.74% ( -0.35)1-0 @ 8.62% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.32)4-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.11)5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.88% Total : 65.57% | 1-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.19)0-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.19% Total : 18.88% | 1-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.27% Total : 15.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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