SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
45.52% ( -0.11) | 26.21% ( 0.03) | 28.26% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 50.77% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.64% ( -0.07) | 53.36% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.1% ( -0.06) | 74.9% ( 0.06) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.62% ( -0.08) | 23.38% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.64% ( -0.12) | 57.35% ( 0.12) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.27% ( 0.03) | 33.73% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.61% ( 0.03) | 70.39% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 45.52% | 1-1 @ 12.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.21% | 0-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 28.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 39 |
| 3 | Porto | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Braga | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 17 |
| 13 | BoavistaBoavista | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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