SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
49.06% ( -0.36) | 26.03% ( 0.2) | 24.91% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 48.7% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.23% ( -0.64) | 54.76% ( 0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.92% ( -0.53) | 76.08% ( 0.53) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.64% ( -0.43) | 22.36% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.15% ( -0.64) | 55.84% ( 0.64) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( -0.21) | 37.27% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.94% ( -0.21) | 74.06% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 9.35% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.02% | 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.08% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.72% Total : 24.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Benfica | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Braga | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Vizela | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
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