SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.51%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.65%) and 0-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.38%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (2.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
9.81% ( -0.7) | 15.67% ( -0.35) | 74.51% ( 1.04) |
| Both teams to score 50.32% ( -1.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.9% ( -0.52) | 36.1% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.79% ( -0.57) | 58.2% ( 0.57) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.84% ( -1.7) | 45.16% ( 1.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.94% ( -1.38) | 81.06% ( 1.38) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.76% ( 0.1) | 8.23% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.21% ( 0.25) | 28.78% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.78% Total : 9.81% | 1-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.92% Total : 15.67% | 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.41) 0-3 @ 9.65% ( 0.39)0-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.28)1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 7.67% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 6.02% ( 0.27)1-4 @ 4.79% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.17)0-5 @ 3.01% ( 0.15)1-5 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.09)0-6 @ 1.25% ( 0.07)1-6 @ 1% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.74% Total : 74.51% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Braga | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 26 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Vizela | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
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