SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.72%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 9.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.46%) and 3-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
73.72% ( 1.08) | 16.41% ( -0.46) | 9.86% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 47.66% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.4% ( 0.27) | 39.59% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.05% ( 0.28) | 61.94% ( -0.28) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.73% ( 0.33) | 9.26% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.69% ( 0.77) | 31.3% ( -0.77) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.53% ( -1.04) | 47.46% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.16% ( -0.79) | 82.83% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
| 2-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.31)2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.27)4-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.74% Total : 73.72% | 1-1 @ 7.8% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.76% Total : 16.41% | 0-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.45% Total : 9.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Benfica | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Braga | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Vizela | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
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