SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.42%. A draw had a probability of 10.1% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 4.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.35%) and 4-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.81%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (1.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
85.42% ( 0.05) | 10.12% ( -0.03) | 4.46% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 42.28% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.9% ( 0.01) | 30.1% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.69% ( 0.01) | 51.31% ( -0.02) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.13% ( 0.01) | 4.87% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.41% ( 0.03) | 19.59% ( -0.03) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.44% ( -0.08) | 55.56% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 11.79% ( -0.05) | 88.21% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Portimonense |
| 3-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 12.35% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.18% 3-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.53% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.34% ( 0)6-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.68% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0)7-0 @ 1.24% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 3.37% Total : 85.41% | 1-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.71% ( -0)2-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.47% Total : 10.12% | 0-1 @ 1.59% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.46% Total : 4.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 19 |
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