SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belenenses | Draw | Famalicao |
29.22% ( 2.46) | 26.24% ( 0.19) | 44.54% ( -2.65) |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( 1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.01% ( 0.6) | 52.98% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.42% ( 0.51) | 74.58% ( -0.51) |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.18% ( 2.24) | 32.81% ( -2.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.62% ( 2.42) | 69.38% ( -2.42) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.31% ( -0.98) | 23.68% ( 0.98) |
