Estoril Praia have struggled to get going away from home, where they are yet to pick up a win this year. With just one defeat in their last eight home games, Famalicao head into Friday as slight favourites to come away with all three points. However, given their similar form and evenly-matched squad, we predict a share of the spoils with both sides doing just enough to come away with a point apiece.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 23.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
