SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Belenenses |
45.96% ( -0.77) | 26.73% ( 0.18) | 27.31% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 48.61% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.15% ( -0.33) | 55.85% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.03% ( -0.27) | 76.97% ( 0.27) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.74% ( -0.51) | 24.26% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.38% ( -0.73) | 58.62% ( 0.73) |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.18% ( 0.31) | 35.82% ( -0.31) |
