SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Arouca |
60.57% ( 0.15) | 22.23% ( -0.06) | 17.2% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.18% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.42% ( 0.13) | 48.59% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.29% ( 0.12) | 70.71% ( -0.12) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.4% ( 0.09) | 15.6% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.42% ( 0.18) | 44.58% ( -0.17) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.27% ( -0.03) | 41.74% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.8% ( -0.02) | 78.2% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 60.56% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0)Other @ 0.86% Total : 22.22% | 0-1 @ 5.69% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 17.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 12 | 39 | 53 |
| 2 | Porto | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 48 | 12 | 36 | 51 |
| 3 | Braga | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 49 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 38 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 31 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 30 |
| 8 | Vizela | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 26 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 26 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 26 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 24 |
| 13 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 22 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 15 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 12 |
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