With just two points separating Vizela and Arouca, we predict a cagey affair as they both look to snap their winless runs and boost their survival chances. However, we predict the honours will be shared between the two evenly-matched sides who should do just enough to leave with a point apiece.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
