SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 49.3%. A win for Hereford United had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Hereford United win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Hereford United |
49.3% ( -0.12) | 24.59% ( -0.11) | 26.12% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 54.19% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.89% ( 0.65) | 48.11% ( -0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.73% ( 0.59) | 70.27% ( -0.59) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.45% ( 0.21) | 19.55% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.54% ( 0.34) | 51.46% ( -0.34) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.35% ( 0.53) | 32.65% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.81% ( 0.59) | 69.2% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Hereford United |
| 1-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.29% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.58% | 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 4% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.53% Total : 26.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Tamworth | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 10 | 18 | 32 |
| 2 | South Shields | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 24 |
| 6 | Buxton | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 23 |
| 7 | Brackley Town | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Chester FCChester | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Chorley | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Boston UnitedBoston | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 11 | Warrington Town | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 22 |
| 12 | Blyth Spartans | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 21 |
| 13 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 21 |
| 14 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 15 | SouthportSouthport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
| 16 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 17 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 19 |
| 18 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 19 |
| 19 | Rushall Olympic | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 |
| 20 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 17 |
| 21 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 16 |
| 22 | Bishop's StortfordBishop's Stortford | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 13 |
| 23 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 24 | Darlington | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 11 |
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