SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 37.54%. A win for Warrington Town had a probability of 36.47% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Warrington Town win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Warrington Town |
37.54% ( -0.44) | 25.99% ( 0.21) | 36.47% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 54.27% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.88% ( -0.92) | 50.12% ( 0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.91% ( -0.82) | 72.09% ( 0.82) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.97% ( -0.67) | 26.02% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.94% ( -0.9) | 61.05% ( 0.9) |
| Warrington Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.36% ( -0.3) | 26.63% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.13% ( -0.4) | 61.87% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Warrington Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 8.31% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.28% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.54% | 1-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.99% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.18% Total : 36.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Tamworth | 28 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 62 |
| 2 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 55 | 23 | 32 | 54 |
| 3 | Brackley Town | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 45 |
| 4 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | Chorley | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 28 | 16 | 43 |
| 6 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 42 |
| 9 | Chester FCChester | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 42 |
| 10 | Boston UnitedBoston | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 41 |
| 11 | South Shields | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 40 |
| 12 | Blyth Spartans | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 38 |
| 13 | Warrington Town | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 38 |
| 14 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 37 |
| 15 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 34 |
| 16 | Rushall Olympic | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 33 |
| 17 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 32 |
| 18 | SouthportSouthport | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 32 |
| 19 | Buxton | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 31 |
| 20 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 30 |
| 21 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 22 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 22 |
| 23 | Darlington | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 51 | -32 | 22 |
| 24 | Bishop's StortfordBishop's Stortford | 27 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 17 |
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