SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Gloucester City had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Gloucester City win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gloucester City | Draw | Alfreton Town |
27.69% ( 0.01) | 27.11% | 45.2% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.79% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.97% ( 0.01) | 57.03% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.08% ( 0) | 77.92% ( -0.01) |
| Gloucester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.84% ( 0.01) | 36.15% ( -0.01) |
