Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Valenciennes had a probability of 31% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Valenciennes win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bastia would win this match.
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