SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 60.83%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.73%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-0 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lens |
17.5% ( 0.08) | 21.67% ( 0.05) | 60.83% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 51.51% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.23% ( -0.1) | 45.77% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.91% ( -0.09) | 68.08% ( 0.09) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.29% ( 0.04) | 39.71% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.62% ( 0.03) | 76.38% ( -0.04) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.42% ( -0.08) | 14.57% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.36% ( -0.14) | 42.64% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lens |
| 1-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 17.5% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.58% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.67% | 0-1 @ 11.14% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 10.73% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.89% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.36% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.32% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 60.82% |
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