SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 68.08%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 12.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
68.08% ( -0.02) | 19.36% ( 0.01) | 12.55% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 46.87% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.36% ( 0.02) | 45.63% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.04% ( 0.02) | 67.96% ( -0.02) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.63% ( 0) | 12.37% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.77% ( 0) | 38.22% ( 0) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.49% ( 0.04) | 46.5% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.89% ( 0.03) | 82.11% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lens | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
| 2-0 @ 12.56% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 12.02% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.57% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.91% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.46% 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0)Other @ 3.08% Total : 68.08% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( -0)2-2 @ 3.68% ( 0)Other @ 0.72% Total : 19.36% | 0-1 @ 4.41% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.69% ( 0)2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2% Total : 12.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 25 | 33 |
| 2 | Nice | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Lille | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 5 | Reims | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 23 |
| 6 | Lens | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Brest | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 22 |
| 8 | Marseille | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | NantesNantes | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 18 |
| 10 | Le HavreLe Havre | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Metz | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 16 |
| 12 | Rennes | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Lorient | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Clermont | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Lyon | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 7 |
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