SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 49.37%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Toulouse |
49.37% ( 0.27) | 24.1% ( -0.06) | 26.53% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 56.14% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.3% ( 0.09) | 45.7% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.98% ( 0.09) | 68.02% ( -0.09) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.41% ( 0.14) | 18.58% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.14% ( 0.24) | 49.86% ( -0.24) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.95% ( -0.12) | 31.04% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.64% ( -0.14) | 67.36% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Toulouse |
| 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 49.37% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.09% | 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.88% Total : 26.53% |
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